Betting Systems

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Betting strategy

A betting strategy or betting system is a structured approach to gambling intended to counter the inherent bias held by the house in casino and card games and by bookmakers in horseracing and sports betting. A successful strategy should increase the odds of winning in order to produce long term profits from a pursuit which under normal circumstances will only ever result in a long term loss.

All betting systems are predicated on statistical analysis, seeking to exploit the rare circumstances when the odds are in the favour of the player. Though the basis of all risk is fundamentally the same, betting systems vary in relation to the rules and circumstances of each particular game. The most established betting systems include:

Card games - Card counting
Roulette - Martingale
Horse racing - Hedging, Arbitrage
Sports - Handicapping

See More details below the box

Betting System Reviews

Martingale system - Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies popular in 18th-century France. The name is not eponymous; and there is no Monsieur Martingale. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Since a gambler with infinite wealth will with probability 1 eventually flip heads, the Martingale betting strategy was seen as a sure thing by those who practised it. Of course, none of these practitioners in fact possessed infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets would eventually bankrupt those who choose to use the Martingale. It is widely believed that casinos instituted betting limits specifically to stop Martingale players, but in reality the assumptions behind the strategy are unsound. Players using the Martingale system do not have any long term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.

Effect of variance - As with any betting system, it is possible to have variance from the expected negative return by temporarily avoiding the inevitable losing streak. Furthermore, a straight string of losses is the only sequence of outcomes that results in a loss of money, so even when a player has lost the majority of their bets, they can still be ahead over-all, since they always win 1 unit when a bet wins, regardless of how many previous losses

Anti-martingale - In a classic martingale betting style, gamblers will increase their bets after each loss in hopes that an eventual win will recover all previous losses. The anti-martingale approach instead increases bets after wins, while reducing them after a loss. The perception is that in this manner the gambler will benefit from a winning streak or a "hot hand", while reducing losses while "cold" or otherwise having a losing streak.

Gambling Fallacy - The Gambling Fallacy technique wrongly assumes that because a certain card or number has not shown up recently, it will definitely occur in a near future, hence the self-explanatory name of this particular betting system. The problem with this technique is that it incorrectly takes for granted that mathematical probabilities will give reason to whoever attempts to predict a 'future' situation. This is why relying on the Gambling Fallacy is highly risky, simply because the factual grounds of such a technique are largely inaccurate. Though it might be tempting on certain occasions to rely on the likelihood of an event to occur by basing one's judgment on past events, it would be advisable to avoid using this technique.

D`Alembert System - Similar in principle to the Martingale system but much safer, anyone using the D`Alembert system will raise his bet after each time he loses, and similarly will decrease his bet every time he wins. Using this technique will allow you to compensate your losses by gradually betting higher after losing, whilst letting you keep most of your winnings by betting slightly less each time you win.

Parlay System - Commonly used in horse racing, the Parlay system aims at taking the winnings from one bet, and investing those on the following bet. Being a positive progression system, this system can be regarded as being reasonably safe. Players using this technique generally aim for a winning situation that will occur in a quite distant future, as in theory it should protect the accumulated winnings.

Paroli System - The Paroli system is exactly the opposite of the Martingale system: if you win, you increase your bet. As opposed to the Martingale system, the Paroli system substantially enhances your winning if you are enjoying a winning streak situation. Most importantly, this system does not involve an important bankroll.

1-3-2-6 System - The 1-3-2-6 system is a positive progression system that takes for granted that you should be able to win four times in a row. If bets are categorized on a scale of one to six units(six being the highest bet), your first bet should be 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units, and the fourth 6 units. Despite the mathematics involved in this system, it is fairly straightforward. All in all, the system offers insurance by altering the bets each time, and taking money away when you win at particular moments. If you end up winning four times in a succession, it is a very good opportunity to substantially increase your bankroll. However mathematics have the final word: it is equally as likely that you will lose four times in a row.

Betting Strategy vs. Card Counting

In a true random memoryless game any betting strategy (like Martingale) can't improve the expected winnings. The odds of winning are entirely governed by the expected calculation of house edge. Classic casino games such as European Roulette have an expected loss of 19/37 for each play, American roulette is 20/38, Pass line bet in craps is 251/459, and the Don't pass Line is 1031/1980. Slot machines also have an expectation but it is legally permitted to be kept secret from the player. The acronym for the table that shows the probability for different outcomes for a given machine is its PARS, which is an acronym for Paytable and Reel Strips.

Card counting has a superficial resemblance to betting strategies because the initial wager is increased and decreased. However a deck of cards is not a random memoryless game. The strategy is based on the reality that a deck with many Aces and 10 value cards remaining is very likely to produce a blackjack (or natural). The blackjack is just as likely to go to the dealer as the player. However, the player gets paid a bonus for getting a blackjack (traditionally 50%) while the dealer only wins the original stake. If the player uses a strategy to estimate that the remaining cards in the deck are rich in 10's and Aces he increases his bet to take advantage of the increased possibility of a blackjack. The traditional game previous to 1960 used a single deck of cards and was dealt nearly to the bottom of the deck. It was possible to invent strategies that could easily be taught to make good estimates of the number of Aces and 10's remaining in the deck. Card counting is not cheating because the player does not use subterfuge to know the outcome, he merely knows that the probabilities have changed to be more in his favor. So an effective card counter must have an extremely large bankroll to cover the times when his initial bet is large, but the dealer still wins. Casinos have implemented multiple rule changes that make this estimation much more difficult. The easiest one is that the pit boss does not permit a wide range of initial wagers and invites the player to change to a different game if he insists on maintaining this behaviour.

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